Article originally posted in PSBJ on October 15, 2020
A synopsis of Emerging Trends 2021 is out, and again Seattle is not among the top 10 U.S. markets to watch.
Based on a survey of nearly 1,600 real estate experts, Urban Land Institute and PwC's annual report is a well-regarded forecast and the outlook is not optimistic with most of the experts expecting overall real estate prices to fall 5% to 10% as income declines for several years.
This year's report explores how Covid-19 accelerated many existing trends like retail footprint reductions but spawned new ones like the increased focus on social justice, and stopped others like the appeal of big cities.
Last year, Seattle ranked 16th after claiming the top spot the year before. In recent years, the metro generally has placed in the top 10.
No West Coast city made the top 10, which was led by Raleigh/Durham, North Carolina. ULI said strong growth, the homebuilding outlook, affordability, and job prospects are fueling the top markets.
Following Raleigh were Austin, Nashville, Dallas/Fort Worth, Charlotte, Tampa/St. Petersburg, Salt Lake City, Washington D.C./North Virginia, Boston and Long Island, New York. Seattle's 2021 ranking was not revealed in the ULI news release and the full report was not available Wednesday evening.
For urbanists, Emerging Trends 2021 is a dose of disillusionment though very much expected given how Covid-19 has turned the world on its head. The experts say homebuyers will look for suburban locations with low taxes, affordable housing, auto-oriented transportation, and good job prospects.
Social unrest and protests in cities nationwide also are factors, with 70% of survey respondents agreeing that the real estate industry can address and help end systemic racism — from promoting diversity, equity and inclusion within the sector, to looking for ways to develop underserved communities.
On a rating scale of social issues in real estate, income and racial inequality moved from little to moderate importance last year, to moderate to great importance.
While overall real estate prices are forecast to fall, industrial properties, data centers and single-family homes are expected to rise in value with retail and hospitality seeing the largest decline.
Work-from-home policies on a large scale have proven to work and be more effective than thought possible. Ninety-four percent of those surveyed agreed that companies will allow employees to work remotely at least part of the time in the future.
So, some businesses will shrink their footprints to save money, but 60% of survey respondents think office tenants will look to expand spaces for new ways of collaboration while social distancing.
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